Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 13.584394 15.518911 17.596615 19.989929 22.666441 25.563118 28.930908
2025-08-10 10.737719 13.376327 16.425773 20.193582 24.705610 29.916122 36.368301
2025-08-17 9.239879 12.172438 15.724401 20.311527 26.043209 32.930450 41.790196
2025-08-24 8.024904 11.122696 15.036997 20.295503 27.117238 35.603778 46.886965
2025-08-31 7.032500 10.196628 14.346805 20.117689 27.851052 37.762282 51.314618
2025-09-07 6.329009 9.561285 13.946638 20.236228 28.911816 40.326844 56.324520
2025-09-14 5.892994 9.237654 13.914906 20.810119 30.566486 43.702491 62.510775
2025-09-21 5.286076 8.599000 13.373890 20.607363 31.102072 45.553703 66.681215
2025-09-28 4.571696 7.724376 12.410230 19.707025 30.563394 45.852491 68.671195
2025-10-05 4.330983 7.551837 12.462285 20.283697 32.162007 49.197801 75.051293
2025-10-12 4.075151 7.327973 12.411419 20.687522 33.507174 52.216491 81.065075
2025-10-19 3.727222 6.919126 12.036072 20.555360 34.019705 54.019980 85.357858
2025-10-26 3.377105 6.480477 11.588615 20.291728 34.332846 55.568685 89.388742
2025-11-02 3.114994 6.169407 11.324528 20.300933 35.065482 57.773770 94.490364
2025-11-09 2.912595 5.943390 11.180675 20.487727 36.073873 60.421820 100.343265
2025-11-16 2.691057 5.660523 10.915726 20.447972 36.701269 62.488460 105.360409
2025-11-23 2.470567 5.357583 10.590251 20.277070 37.090875 64.178353 109.829637
2025-11-30 2.313537 5.161479 10.438786 20.393627 37.957554 66.651676 115.614347
2025-12-07 2.233633 5.110452 10.546663 20.972450 39.633011 70.493181 123.724008
2025-12-14 2.056453 4.844633 10.233813 20.767955 39.934422 72.075480 128.200739
2025-12-21 1.810094 4.409417 9.564735 19.861518 38.946205 71.454469 129.006796
2025-12-28 1.757246 4.383317 9.687167 20.442135 40.635420 75.408195 137.559323
2026-01-04 1.687962 4.314463 9.718962 20.848757 42.022589 78.888468 145.419566